Meaningless financial news? I translate them into updated intrinsic valuations
I use financial modelling to convert investing news into usable numbers.
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Fundamental analysis, discounted cash flow, sensitivity and scenario analysis, etc.
Introduction
Have you ever had the feeling that you don't get any usable information from the financial news?
You spend hours and hours reading the press and, in the end, you are left with always the same question: "Nice stories, but.. what does it really change for my investments?"
Letâs take, for example, the news of Tesla investing in Bitcoin (FT.com):
Was it good news or bad news for the shareholders?
I read hundreds of article on what this investment meant for Bitcoin and almost zero on the most important thing:
How this investment affected the fair value of Tesla. (Read about it here đ)
The âNews to Numbersâ newsletter
I am a firm believer that numbers should back every âstoryâ. Otherwise is just a legend, an illusion.
When real accounting numbers do not back a stock marketâs story, it could trick hundreds of investors into the wrong investment, fooled by the latest stock marketâs euphoria.
Exactly as it happened with Tesla.
And that's why I'm starting the "From News to Numbers" newsletter.
Here, I will take the hottest investing news, and I will convert them into reasonable sales forecast, price targets and updated intrinsic valuations.
The goal is to bring some consciousness back to the numbers that matter instead of the narrative that is dominating the markets right now.
Every month, I will take one public company with some âfreshâ news, I will evaluate it, and I will develop an updated sales forecast, price target and a new fair value. In each report, you will find:
A deep dive into the sector and the companyâs financial situation;
Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation;
Scenario & sensitivity analysis;
Implicit market expectations (reverse-DCF);
Montecarlo Simulation.
A breakdown of the effects of the recent news on the companyâs fair value.
Much more!